MUD\WTR Daily Performance Report

Sunday, March 29, 2026 — Previous Day Review
Northbeam Attribution: Clicks Only · 1-Day Click Window · Accrual
Generated Monday March 30, 6:00 AM Pacific
1 Daily Scoreboard
Key performance indicators vs. targets
New Customers
476
Up from 311 Saturday (+53%)
TARGET: 500+  |  7d avg: 440
Blended CAC
$93
Down from $130 Saturday
TARGET: <$90  |  7d avg: $98
Total Spend
$44,276
7d avg: $43,224
Total Transactions
3,160
Revenue: $169,748
All platforms
Metric Sunday Saturday 7-Day Avg 30-Day Avg Target
NC (all platforms) 476 311 440 547 500+
Blended CAC $93 $130 $98 $93 <$90
Daily Spend $44,276 $40,322 $43,224 $50,725

Note: 7d/30d averages are from 14-day window pulls done earlier. Yesterday's numbers use 1-day click which is tighter, so the comparison isn't perfectly apples-to-apples but directionally correct.

Yellow Alert — Recovering But Not Clear

NC rebounded 53% from Saturday's low (311 → 476) but still 13% below 7-day average. CAC improved to $93, matching the 30-day average. Spend recovered $4K. Trending in the right direction but not out of the woods.

2 Attribution Model Analysis
Which model should we trust?
Model x Window NC Transactions CAC Insight
Clicks Only · 1-day 311974$130 Conservative baseline
Clicks Only · 7-day 311984$130 Same as 1-day — people convert same day
Clicks Only · Lifetime 3632,768$111 +17% more NC, lots more repeat txns
Clicks + Det. Views · 1-day 0933N/A Views drive repeat purchases, NOT new customers
Clicks + Det. Views · 7-day 0941N/A Same pattern

FB-Only Breakdown

Model NC CAC ROAS
Clicks Only · 1-day 135$215
Clicks Only · Lifetime 167$1741.24x
Finding 1-day and 7-day click windows produce IDENTICAL results. Your customers convert same-day or not at all. There is no consideration window. This means 1-day click is the right attribution window — you're not losing any signal.
Finding Deterministic Views model shows ZERO new customers but 933 transactions. View attribution captures repeat purchases from existing customers seeing ads, but does NOT drive new customer acquisition. For NC-focused decisions, use Clicks Only.
Recommendation Use Clicks Only · 1-day as your primary model for daily decisions. Reference Lifetime periodically for the full picture (+17% more NC from longer attribution paths).
3 Yesterday's Campaigns
All campaigns with $50+ spend on Sunday, March 29. 1-day click window. Click headers to sort.
Campaign Spend NC CAC ROAS Status
conv_all_ABO_scaling_7day$11,395101$1131.14xWATCH
conv_og_sales_ASC_top-ads_relaunch$10,49949$2160.23xCUT 50%
conv_ABO_persona-testing$3,88416$2500.17xCUT
TQE - CBO$1,9488$2310.25xCUT
og_search-conquesting$1,92727$731.92xSCALE
GeistM VsRyze$1,7179$1960.95xCUT
Amazon US$1,6100N/A0.00xREVIEW
MUD_CPP_D0_TopAds$1,2258$1450.68xWATCH
marpipe_test$1,1167$1580.56xCUT
conv_rest_costperresult_ASC$9961$9960.05xKILL
GeistM BestFor$9912$6190.09xKILL
tof_awr_eng_fyf$9240N/A0.00xKILL NOW
og_search-brand$88436$249.15xSCALE
MUD_CPP_Mar4Refresh$8123$3250.41xCUT
og_search-nb_mushroom-coffee$3434$866.80xSCALE
3b Top Ads — Sunday
Highest-spend individual ads on Sunday, March 29. 1-day click window.
# Format Ad Spend NC CAC ROAS
1Video Calm-Seeker OG SHA-Caff $8653$3460.16x
2Video Founder OG Iced Recipe (main) $7855$1620.23x
3Static TQE Thomas Static2 $7744$2180.19x
4Static TQE Jenna Static 3 $5474$1560.30x
5Static STATIC_V.36 jan14sprint $4623$1850.28x
6Video Calm-Seeker OG SHA-Piketty $2994$850.45x
7Video Gut-Guardian Coffee Proprietary $2694$620.64x
Top Ad Insight The Gut-Guardian Coffee Proprietary video hit $62 CAC on Sunday — the lowest CAC ad in the account today and second day in a row of strong results. This validates yesterday's recommendation to scale it. Founder OG Iced Recipe continues performing at $162 CAC.
4 Creative Performance Center
Deep creative analysis. 30-day window, 1-day click attribution, Accrual.

A) Top Creative — Scale These

30-day data, 1-day click window, $1K+ spend, 5+ NC, sorted by CAC.

# Format Ad Name Campaign // Adset 30d Spend NC CAC ROAS CPM Action
1Video Founder_OG_Iced Recipe (scaling_7day) scaling_7day // Founder_OG_Iced Recipe $6,04548$1261.62x$40.26 SCALE
2Static Statics84 - Copy scaling_7day // static2winners $4,21832$1330.79x$20.22 SCALE
3GIF GIF_Animations value-driven ASC_top-ads_CPR // ASC_top-ads $4,00228$1411.94x$34.24 SCALE
4Video Founder Iced Recipe (hvlc) ASC_relaunch // hvlc $9,99465$1540.28x$35.48 REVIEW
5Static 40% OFF square-6 Copy scaling_7day // static2winners $2,59717$1550.45x$23.62 WATCH
6Static STATIC_V.36 Copy (jan14sprint) ASC_CPR // ASC_top-ads $4,94729$1720.67x$20.59 WATCH
7Static STATICS37 Copy (jan14sprint) ASC_CPR // ASC_top-ads $7,22538$1920.92x$15.69 WATCH
Same Creative, Different Results The Founder OG Iced Recipe video is the best creative in the account at $126 CAC. But notice: the SAME creative in the hvlc adset costs $154 with 0.28x ROAS. The creative works — the hvlc audience doesn't. Kill the hvlc adset, scale the scaling_7day adset.

B) Concept Clusters

Ads grouped by creative concept. See which CONCEPTS work, not just individual ads.

Concept # Ads Formats 30d Spend NC CAC ROAS Verdict
Founder OG Iced Recipe5Video $47,529277$1710.38x WORKHORSE
TQE - Thomas2Static $44,085172$2560.11x HIGH SPEND
Static: statics26Static $21,951129$1700.28x SOLID
Static: statics372Static $15,71769$2280.43x FATIGUING
GIF Animations2GIF $9,17545$2030.85x UNDERSCALED
TQE - Lorelco5Static/Video $7,3819$8350.08x KILL
TQE - Wade UGC8Static/Video $7,35417$4310.08x KILL
Persona: Calm-Seeker40Video $7,21219$3860.06x KILL
TQE - Jenna4Static $6,56714$4720.05x KILL
40% OFF Static1Static $5,83224$2430.64x DECENT
Retail4GIF $3,6940N/A0.00x KILL
Canada2Video $1,3035$2801.35x SCALE

New Customer Volume by Concept (30d)

Concept Analysis 5 concepts drive 93% of new customers: Founder Iced Recipe, Thomas Static, Statics2, Statics37, and GIF Animations. Everything else is noise or actively losing money. The Persona testing (40 ads at $386 CAC) and TQE agency work (Lorelco $835, Wade $431, Jenna $472) should be killed immediately.

C) Creative Fatigue Detector

Ads getting worse over time: 7d CAC vs 30d CAC comparison.

Ad Format 30d CAC 7d CAC Δ CAC 30d CPM 7d CPM Signal
STATICS37Static $166$282+69% $17.10$17.10 FATIGUING — CPM stable but CAC rising = audience exhaustion
Thomas Static2 (TQE)Static $255$366+43% $19.55$19.24 FATIGUING
Jenna Static 2 (TQE)Static $207$282+36% $17.26$16.76 FATIGUING
Founder Iced Recipe (hvlc)Video $203$273+35% $23.18$20.73 DEGRADING
Founder Iced Recipe (main)Video $167$170+2% $35.81$33.01 STABLE
SHA MushroomCoffeeComparisonVideo $276$78-72% $29.39$29.72 IMPROVING
Fatigue Alert STATICS37 has CPM stable at $17.10 but CAC jumped 69%. This means the audience is seeing the ad but not converting — classic fatigue. Refresh the creative or pause and let it rest. SHA MushroomCoffeeComparison (Canada) is trending in the opposite direction — CAC dropped 72%. Scale this ad.

D) Creative Velocity

How fast are we shipping new creative? And is it working?

Active Ads (7d)
97
Active Ads (30d)
133
New Ads This Week
44
Sub-$200 CAC
2
0 Conversions
12+

Top New Ads This Week (sorted by spend)

Format Ad Name Spend NC CAC
StaticSTATIC_V.36 (jan14sprint) $1,7405$354
StaticSTATICS37 (jan14sprint) $1,2674$282
VideoCalm-Seeker Coffee L-Theanine $9704$242
VideoGut-Guardian Coffee Proprietary $6294$157
Velocity Check 44 new ads launched this week — good creative velocity. But only 2 have sub-$200 CAC. Most are persona-testing ads that are underperforming. The best new ad is the Gut-Guardian Coffee Proprietary video at $157 CAC (30d) / $62 CAC (Sunday) — scale this immediately.

E) Creative Format Summary

30-day performance by creative format. Updated data.

Type Spend NC CAC ROAS CPM # Ads
Video $36,319192$189 1.88x$28.95472
Static $57,192276$207 1.14x$18.01332
GIF $6,53330$219 2.24x$17.2165

ROAS by Creative Format (30d)

Spend Distribution by Format (30d)

Format Strategy Video has the best CAC ($189) AND best volume efficiency. Static gets 57% of spend but $207 CAC. GIF has the best ROAS (2.24x) but only 6.5% of spend. Action: Increase GIF and Video creative production. For every 2 statics produced, make 1 GIF and 1 video version of the same concept.
5 Landing Page Performance

SUNDAY BOUNCE RATES SPIKED ACROSS THE BOARD

Every major landing page saw 50-66% bounce rate on Sunday vs 18-39% during the week. Investigate device mix and traffic quality.

Landing Page Sessions CVR vs 7d Avg Bounce Revenue
/products/30-servings-tin8,5181.87%-0.40pp56%$8,990
/pages/rise-27,7201.32%-0.05pp59%$4,873
/ (homepage)5,8733.35%+1.09pp56%$11,626
/pages/compare-listicle-og3,6711.61%-0.06pp56%$2,481
/products/nourish-chocolate2,2890.13%-0.20pp66%$147
/pages/nourish1,0560.00%N/A53%$0
/products/coffee-starter-kit9392.24%N/A49%$1,167
/pages/rise7412.97%N/A54%$1,515
/pages/rise-2-coffee6170.32%-0.70pp58%$109

Session Distribution by Landing Page (Sunday)

Sessions vs. Conversion Rate (Sunday)

Bounce Rate Spike BOUNCE RATES ARE ELEVATED ACROSS THE BOARD: Every major landing page has 50-66% bounce rate on Sunday vs 18-39% during the week. This could be a mobile vs desktop shift on weekends, or could indicate traffic quality issues. Investigate device mix.
Homepage CVR Homepage CVR spiked to 3.35% (vs 2.26% 7d avg). This is likely returning customers / direct traffic converting at higher rates on weekends.
Broken Page /products/nourish-chocolate continues to be broken — 2,289 sessions, 0.13% CVR, 66% bounce. This page needs immediate attention.
6 Targeting Funnel Performance
Month-to-date by targeting type. Northbeam attribution.
Targeting Spend Revenue ROAS CAC NC
Paid - Other (broad/ASC) $972,293$1,061,7171.09x$1516,444
Paid - Prospecting $112,241$252,1082.25x$379296
Paid - Retargeting $0$144,875$010
Funnel Analysis Prospecting has the best ROAS (2.25x) but much higher CAC ($379). "Paid - Other" (mostly ASC/broad) drives 95% of volume at $151 CAC. The retargeting pool is severely underutilized — $0 spend but generating $145K in attributed revenue from organic touchpoints. There is a clear opportunity to add dedicated retargeting budget.
7 Historical Context
3-year performance benchmarks across all platforms. Northbeam attribution.
3-Year FB CAC
$179
Current 12-wk: $148 (better)
3-Year Blended CAC
$71
Current: $93 (worse)
3-Year FB Spend
$28.7M
160K new customers
FB Share
19%
of NC, but 49% of paid spend

Top Platforms by New Customer Volume (3-Year)

8 Action Items
Direct orders. No hedging. Execute now.
CRITICAL Do today — before noon Pacific
HIGH PRIORITY Complete this week
WATCH Monitor daily
9 Data Notes
Source information and known issues
  • Northbeam: Clicks Only · 1-day click · Accrual accounting
  • GA4: mudwtr.com - GA4 (property 310751693)
  • Supermetrics FB Ads: connection returning empty data — re-authenticate to unlock creative preview URLs
  • Northbeam MCP: API bugs fixed 3/29 (period_type, attribution_windows)
  • For creative previews: facebook.com/ads/library → search "MUD WTR"